ATP tennis predict

Track Record

Every prediction we've published, checked against what actually happened. Nothing removed, nothing hidden.

Predictions evaluated

3119

Overall accuracy

63.4%

When confident (70%+)

74.5%

Since

2026-07-15

How this page works

• A prediction only counts here once the match has actually been played and the real winner is known — nothing upcoming is included, and nothing is excluded after the fact once it is.

• "Accuracy" means how often the player the model gave a higher win probability actually won.

• The confidence bands below double as a calibration check: if the model is honest, a prediction made at "70-80%" should come true roughly 70-80% of the time — not 50%, not 95%.

Accuracy by confidence level

The more confident the model is in a pick, the more often it should be — and is — right.

50-55% 49.0% correct · 622 predictions
55-60% 58.9% correct · 593 predictions
60-65% 64.5% correct · 493 predictions
65-70% 64.5% correct · 439 predictions
70-80% 69.9% correct · 608 predictions
80-90% 81.0% correct · 311 predictions
90-100% 88.7% correct · 53 predictions

Calibration

Each dot is one confidence band. On the dashed line, the model's stated probability exactly matches its real-world hit rate — dots above the line mean the model has actually been better than it claimed; below, worse. Dot size reflects how many predictions are behind it.

50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 50-55%: predicted 52.5%, actually correct 49.0% (622 predictions) 55-60%: predicted 57.5%, actually correct 58.9% (593 predictions) 60-65%: predicted 62.4%, actually correct 64.5% (493 predictions) 65-70%: predicted 67.5%, actually correct 64.5% (439 predictions) 70-80%: predicted 74.6%, actually correct 69.9% (608 predictions) 80-90%: predicted 84.2%, actually correct 81.0% (311 predictions) 90-100%: predicted 92.1%, actually correct 88.7% (53 predictions) Actual win rate Predicted probability

Accuracy by tournament level

On predictions at 70%+ confidence (972 of 3119 evaluated).

Grand Slam 76.1% (71)
ATP Tour 65.9% (138)
Challenger 75.9% (763)

Accuracy by surface

On predictions at 70%+ confidence (972 of 3119 evaluated).

Hard 74.3% (623)
Clay 74.7% (348)

Disclaimer

Past accuracy describes this track record — it does not guarantee the outcome of any future match. These figures are statistical estimates, not betting advice. See our methodology for how predictions are made.