ATP tennis predict — Zizou Bergs vs Sebastian Baez

ATP Hard Montreal · 2. round 17:00

Predicted probability

Zizou Bergs

Belgium

70.64%

Sebastian Baez

Argentina

29.36%

Average Odds

1.60 / 2.31

Market probability

59.08% / 40.92%

Why This Prediction?

Zizou Bergs is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1732 vs 1519), a higher Elo rating (1803 vs 1778) and a stronger serve (62.3% vs 59.5% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1802.8 Elo 1778.1

1731.9 Elo (surface) 1519.0

109 Wins 146

67 Wins (surface) 39

8 Last 15 form 7

1 Head-to-head wins 0

0.948 Dominance ratio 0.843

34 Rank 48

27.2 Age 25.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Zizou Bergs

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–3L · 70.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Sebastian Baez

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–6L · 14.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Zizou Bergs Sebastian Baez

1st Serve In %

60.9%

63.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.8%

59.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.2%

50.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.7%

22.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.6%

49.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.50

0.18

Double Faults per Service Game

0.37

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.0%

66.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

77.5%

74.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.8%

57.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.0%

38.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.5%

57.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.56

0.33

Double Faults per Service Game

0.38

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Zizou Bergs Sebastian Baez

Break Points Saved %

46.8%

52.7%

Break Points Converted %

41.6%

36.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

58.3%

57.1%

Break Points Converted %

42.5%

43.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Zizou Bergs 1 – 0 Sebastian Baez

Hard Montreal · 2026-08-05

2. round

Zizou Bergs #34

Sebastian Baez #48

3-6 6-3 6-2

7 Aces 1

4 Double Faults 4

66 Service Points 90

37 First Serve In 59

30 First Serve Won 35

17 Second Serve Won 17

0 Break Points Saved 8

2 Break Points Faced 12

28 Winners 12

37 Unforced Errors 36

1.6 Average Odds 2.3

Hard Antwerp · 2024-10-14

R16

Zizou Bergs #69

Sebastian Baez #27

6-3 6-4

8 Aces 1

0 Double Faults 4

60 Service Points 75

43 First Serve In 52

29 First Serve Won 27

7 Second Serve Won 11

4 Break Points Saved 5

6 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Zizou Bergs vs Sebastian Baez — Prediction