ATP tennis predict — Zhizhen Zhang vs Tomas Machac

ATP Hard Shanghai · 1. round 04:00

Predicted probability

Zhizhen Zhang

China

20.29%

Tomas Machac

Czech Republic

79.71%

Average Odds

2.93 / 1.39

Market probability

32.18% / 67.82%

Why This Prediction?

Tomas Machac is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1874 vs 1689), a higher Elo rating (1939 vs 1761) and a stronger return game (39.0% vs 33.5% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1760.6 Elo 1939.3

1689.4 Elo (surface) 1874.0

95 Wins 127

55 Wins (surface) 92

3 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 2

0.933 Dominance ratio 1.050

166 Rank 75

30.0 Age 26.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Zhizhen Zhang

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

12 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Tomas Machac

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

7 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Zhizhen Zhang Tomas Machac

1st Serve In %

65.1%

63.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.6%

73.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.9%

48.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.4%

32.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

41.3%

47.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.64

0.62

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

0.24

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.0%

63.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.2%

74.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.7%

65.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.8%

31.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.8%

56.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.92

0.38

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.18

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Zhizhen Zhang Tomas Machac

Break Points Saved %

56.7%

60.0%

Break Points Converted %

56.8%

42.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

71.4%

73.0%

Break Points Converted %

31.8%

47.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Zhizhen Zhang 0 – 2 Tomas Machac

Clay Paris Olympics · 2024-07-29

R64

Tomas Machac #39

Zhizhen Zhang #41

6-2 4-6 6-2

4 Aces 1

0 Double Faults 1

69 Service Points 84

65 First Serve In 81

44 First Serve Won 46

3 Second Serve Won 0

4 Break Points Saved 6

7 Break Points Faced 12

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Grodzisk Mazowiecki CH · 2022-08-15

F

Tomas Machac #158

Zhizhen Zhang #157

1-6 6-3 6-2

6 Aces 5

3 Double Faults 4

80 Service Points 72

45 First Serve In 52

28 First Serve Won 35

22 Second Serve Won 9

4 Break Points Saved 4

6 Break Points Faced 7