ATP tennis predict — Zhizhen Zhang vs Rei Sakamoto

Grand Slam Hard US Open · qualification - 1. round 23:00

Predicted probability

Zhizhen Zhang

China

39.76%

Rei Sakamoto

Japan

60.24%

Average Odds

1.79 / 1.80

Market probability

50.14% / 49.86%

Why This Prediction?

Rei Sakamoto is the favorite because he has a stronger serve (71.0% vs 68.3% of service points won), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1581 vs 1518) and a higher Elo rating (1665 vs 1645).

Player Comparison

1645.5 Elo 1664.7

1518.2 Elo (surface) 1580.7

95 Wins 14

55 Wins (surface) 10

4 Last 15 form 8

1 Head-to-head wins 0

0.933 Dominance ratio 0.984

158 Rank 165

29.8 Age 20.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Zhizhen Zhang

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

10 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Rei Sakamoto

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–2L · 77.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Zhizhen Zhang Rei Sakamoto

1st Serve In %

64.7%

60.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.8%

76.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.4%

51.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.0%

21.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

42.2%

46.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.62

0.61

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.0%

58.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.2%

75.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.7%

54.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.8%

25.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.8%

40.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.92

0.42

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.39

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Zhizhen Zhang Rei Sakamoto

Break Points Saved %

59.1%

57.5%

Break Points Converted %

52.6%

34.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

71.4%

60.4%

Break Points Converted %

31.8%

45.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Zhizhen Zhang 1 – 0 Rei Sakamoto

Hard Brisbane 2 CH · 2026-02-09

SF

Zhizhen Zhang #365

Rei Sakamoto #174

6-1 6-4

8 Aces 6

1 Double Faults 1

53 Service Points 56

38 First Serve In 39

32 First Serve Won 28

7 Second Serve Won 3

5 Break Points Saved 2

5 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Zhizhen Zhang vs Rei Sakamoto — Prediction