ATP tennis predict — Zhizhen Zhang vs Arthur Gea

ATP Hard Beijing · 1. round 11:00

Predicted probability

Zhizhen Zhang

China

23.91%

Arthur Gea

France

76.09%

Average Odds

3.81 / 1.26

Market probability

24.85% / 75.15%

Why This Prediction?

Arthur Gea is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1970 vs 1694), a higher Elo rating (1946 vs 1766) and a stronger return game (37.7% vs 33.5% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1766.4 Elo 1946.0

1694.1 Elo (surface) 1969.6

95 Wins 24

55 Wins (surface) 20

4 Last 15 form 12

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.933 Dominance ratio 0.967

165 Rank 58

30.0 Age 21.7

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Zhizhen Zhang

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

12 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Arthur Gea

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–1L · 87.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Zhizhen Zhang Arthur Gea

1st Serve In %

65.1%

51.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.6%

68.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.9%

50.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.4%

30.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

41.3%

52.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.64

0.41

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.0%

59.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.2%

69.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.7%

44.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.8%

27.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.8%

48.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.92

0.33

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Zhizhen Zhang Arthur Gea

Break Points Saved %

56.7%

60.0%

Break Points Converted %

56.8%

42.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

71.4%

45.3%

Break Points Converted %

31.8%

36.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Zhizhen Zhang 0 – 0 Arthur Gea

Hard Beijing · 2026-09-30

1. round

Arthur Gea #58

Zhizhen Zhang #165

6-4 6-3

1 Aces 6

2 Double Faults 4

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

20 First Serve Won 27

7 Second Serve Won 9

1 Break Points Saved 2

5 Break Points Faced 4

20 Winners 17

25 Unforced Errors 15

1.3 Average Odds 3.8

Zhizhen Zhang vs Arthur Gea — Prediction