ATP tennis predict — Zachary Svajda vs Denis Shapovalov

ATP Hard Montreal · 1. round

Predicted probability

Zachary Svajda

USA

44.15%

Denis Shapovalov

Canada

55.85%

Average Odds

2.12 / 1.72

Market probability

44.79% / 55.21%

Why This Prediction?

Denis Shapovalov is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1751 vs 1696), a higher Elo rating (1746 vs 1708) and more wins on hard courts (195 vs 51).

Player Comparison

1708.1 Elo 1745.9

1695.8 Elo (surface) 1750.7

64 Wins 259

51 Wins (surface) 195

8 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.959 Dominance ratio 0.932

87 Rank 43

None Age 27.3

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Zachary Svajda

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Denis Shapovalov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–3L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Zachary Svajda Denis Shapovalov

1st Serve In %

56.8%

56.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.2%

71.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.4%

48.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.2%

31.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.8%

48.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.53

0.36

Double Faults per Service Game

0.26

0.45

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.0%

55.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

76.0%

74.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.8%

58.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.1%

31.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.7%

50.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.43

0.50

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20

0.42

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Zachary Svajda Denis Shapovalov

Break Points Saved %

62.7%

59.8%

Break Points Converted %

48.2%

44.4%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

66.7%

59.1%

Break Points Converted %

52.5%

43.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Zachary Svajda 0 – 0 Denis Shapovalov

Hard Montreal · 2026-08-04

1. round

Zachary Svajda #87

Denis Shapovalov #43

4-6 6-4 3-0

0 Aces 3

2 Double Faults 3

67 Service Points 71

44 First Serve In 36

33 First Serve Won 26

12 Second Serve Won 16

1 Break Points Saved 6

3 Break Points Faced 9

11 Winners 8

38 Unforced Errors 34

2.1 Average Odds 1.7

Zachary Svajda vs Denis Shapovalov — Prediction