ATP tennis predict — Yuta Shimizu vs Liam Broady

Challenger Hard Winnipeg challenger · 1. round

Predicted probability

Yuta Shimizu

Japan

49.68%

Liam Broady

Great Britain

50.32%

Average Odds

3.14 / 1.33

Market probability

29.75% / 70.25%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1603.9 Elo 1632.2

1602.1 Elo (surface) 1633.1

128 Wins (Challenger) 245

127 Wins (surface) 216

9 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.138 Dominance ratio 1.227

383 Rank 203

27.1 Age 32.5

left Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Yuta Shimizu

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Liam Broady

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–6L · 45.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Yuta Shimizu Liam Broady

1st Serve In %

63.9%

51.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.6%

69.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.5%

44.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.8%

22.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.7%

47.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.34

0.44

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

0.64

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.3%

57.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.5%

72.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.9%

47.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.5%

30.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.4%

52.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.36

0.39

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Yuta Shimizu Liam Broady

Break Points Saved %

60.9%

65.7%

Break Points Converted %

39.4%

30.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

62.3%

64.6%

Break Points Converted %

41.7%

36.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Yuta Shimizu 0 – 0 Liam Broady

Hard Winnipeg challenger · 2026-07-21

1. round

Yuta Shimizu #383

Liam Broady #203

6-2 7-5

0 Aces 1

2 Double Faults 3

60 Service Points 62

37 First Serve In 30

30 First Serve Won 20

11 Second Serve Won 13

2 Break Points Saved 9

3 Break Points Faced 13

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

3.1 Average Odds 1.3

Yuta Shimizu vs Liam Broady — Prediction