ATP tennis predict — Yuta Shimizu vs Kasidit Samrej

Challenger Hard Phan Thiet 3 challenger · R16 05:10

Predicted probability

Yuta Shimizu

Japan

48.70%

Kasidit Samrej

Thailand

51.30%

Average Odds

1.42 / 2.68

Market probability

65.37% / 34.63%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1655.2 Elo 1669.9

1632.5 Elo (surface) 1647.5

130 Wins (Challenger) 46

129 Wins (surface) 46

8 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.102 Dominance ratio 1.155

396 Rank 486

27.2 Age 25.6

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Yuta Shimizu

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Kasidit Samrej

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

9 matches with market odds since 2026-08-11.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Yuta Shimizu Kasidit Samrej

1st Serve In %

63.9%

56.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.6%

67.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.5%

41.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.8%

26.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.7%

49.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.34

0.33

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

0.46

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.3%

62.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.5%

76.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.9%

45.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.5%

30.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.4%

53.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.36

0.66

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32

0.51

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Yuta Shimizu Kasidit Samrej

Break Points Saved %

60.9%

48.4%

Break Points Converted %

39.4%

46.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

62.3%

78.3%

Break Points Converted %

41.7%

39.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Yuta Shimizu 0 – 0 Kasidit Samrej

Hard Phan Thiet 3 challenger · 2026-09-09

R16

Yuta Shimizu #396

Kasidit Samrej #486

6-4 6-4

7 Aces 9

2 Double Faults 2

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

30 First Serve Won 22

7 Second Serve Won 20

2 Break Points Saved 0

4 Break Points Faced 0

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.4 Average Odds 2.7

Yuta Shimizu vs Kasidit Samrej — Prediction