ATP tennis predict — Yuta Shimizu vs Justin Boulais

Challenger Hard Granby challenger · R16

Predicted probability

Yuta Shimizu

Japan

59.78%

Justin Boulais

Canada

40.22%

Average Odds

1.69 / 2.07

Market probability

55.05% / 44.95%

Why This Prediction?

Yuta Shimizu is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1617 vs 1580), a higher Elo rating (1619 vs 1581) and fewer double faults per game (0.08 vs 0.26).

Player Comparison

1618.9 Elo 1580.8

1617.3 Elo (surface) 1579.6

128 Wins (Challenger) 44

127 Wins (surface) 44

10 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.070 Dominance ratio 0.944

371 Rank 422

27.1 Age 24.7

left Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Yuta Shimizu

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Justin Boulais

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–6L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Yuta Shimizu Justin Boulais

1st Serve In %

63.9%

56.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.6%

60.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.5%

47.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.8%

21.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.7%

43.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.34

0.33

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

0.56

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.3%

60.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.5%

70.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.9%

50.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.5%

34.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.4%

51.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.36

0.26

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32

0.42

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Yuta Shimizu Justin Boulais

Break Points Saved %

60.9%

57.7%

Break Points Converted %

39.4%

16.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

62.3%

54.4%

Break Points Converted %

41.7%

46.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Yuta Shimizu 0 – 0 Justin Boulais

Hard Granby challenger · 2026-07-15

R16

Justin Boulais #422

Yuta Shimizu #371

7-5 6-1

0 Aces 4

1 Double Faults 1

57 Service Points 59

40 First Serve In 35

26 First Serve Won 26

5 Second Serve Won 15

5 Break Points Saved 1

9 Break Points Faced 2

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.1 Average Odds 1.7

Yuta Shimizu vs Justin Boulais — Prediction