ATP tennis predict — Yuta Shimizu vs Bernard Tomic

Challenger Hard Jingshan challenger · R16 05:00

Predicted probability

Yuta Shimizu

Japan

56.17%

Bernard Tomic

Australia

43.83%

Average Odds

2.31 / 1.57

Market probability

40.46% / 59.54%

Why This Prediction?

Yuta Shimizu is the favorite because he has a stronger return game (39.6% vs 34.4% of return points won), a stronger serve (59.7% vs 57.2% of service points won) and a lighter recent match load (21 vs 32 games played recently).

Player Comparison

1661.4 Elo 1700.8

1639.1 Elo (surface) 1678.1

133 Wins (Challenger) 158

132 Wins (surface) 125

8 Last 15 form 10

1 Head-to-head wins 1

1.102 Dominance ratio 0.942

395 Rank 184

27.3 Age 33.9

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Yuta Shimizu

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Bernard Tomic

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 10W–4L · 71.4%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–8L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

36 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Yuta Shimizu Bernard Tomic

1st Serve In %

63.9%

57.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.6%

67.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.5%

46.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.8%

26.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.7%

45.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.34

0.54

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

0.25

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.1%

64.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.1%

75.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.8%

45.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.3%

30.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.9%

52.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.45

0.90

Double Faults per Service Game

0.35

0.12

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Yuta Shimizu Bernard Tomic

Break Points Saved %

60.9%

55.9%

Break Points Converted %

39.4%

45.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

60.0%

71.8%

Break Points Converted %

41.3%

38.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Yuta Shimizu 1 – 1 Bernard Tomic

Hard Little Rock challenger · 2026-05-27

R16

Bernard Tomic #194

Yuta Shimizu #363

4-6 7-6 7-5

8 Aces 10

2 Double Faults 4

106 Service Points 108

69 First Serve In 59

48 First Serve Won 42

21 Second Serve Won 26

10 Break Points Saved 6

14 Break Points Faced 10

36 Winners 30

53 Unforced Errors 54

1.8 Average Odds 1.9

Hard Little Rock CH · 2024-05-27

R16

Yuta Shimizu #265

Bernard Tomic #247

6-1 0-0 RET

2 Aces 2

1 Double Faults 3

19 Service Points 21

13 First Serve In 11

11 First Serve Won 6

4 Second Serve Won 1

0 Break Points Saved 1

0 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Yuta Shimizu vs Bernard Tomic — Prediction