ATP tennis predict — Yuta Shimizu vs Anton Matusevich

Challenger Hard Roehampton challenger · 1. round 13:30

Predicted probability

Yuta Shimizu

Japan

66.88%

Anton Matusevich

Great Britain

33.12%

Average Odds

2.06 / 1.71

Market probability

45.36% / 54.64%

Why This Prediction?

Yuta Shimizu is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1599 vs 1436), more wins on hard courts (128 vs 8) and a stronger serve (66.6% vs 60.2% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1601.9 Elo 1583.7

1599.3 Elo (surface) 1436.2

129 Wins (Challenger) 32

128 Wins (surface) 8

8 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.196 Dominance ratio 0.788

393 Rank 357

27.2 Age 25.2

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Yuta Shimizu

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Anton Matusevich

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–5L · 16.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Yuta Shimizu Anton Matusevich

1st Serve In %

63.9%

56.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.6%

71.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.5%

50.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.8%

30.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.7%

50.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.34

0.56

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.3%

58.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.5%

69.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.9%

45.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.5%

28.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.4%

48.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.36

0.51

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Yuta Shimizu Anton Matusevich

Break Points Saved %

60.9%

63.3%

Break Points Converted %

39.4%

39.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

62.3%

50.8%

Break Points Converted %

41.7%

41.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Yuta Shimizu 0 – 0 Anton Matusevich

Hard Roehampton challenger · 2026-08-18

1. round

Anton Matusevich #357

Yuta Shimizu #393

6-4 7-5

7 Aces 9

4 Double Faults 6

67 Service Points 65

40 First Serve In 35

25 First Serve Won 26

10 Second Serve Won 14

1 Break Points Saved 3

6 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.7 Average Odds 2.1

Yuta Shimizu vs Anton Matusevich — Prediction