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Yuta Kikuchi vs Kosuke Ogura — Prediction

Challenger Hard Wuning 3 challenger · qualification - 1. round 10:30

Predicted probability

Yuta Kikuchi

Japan

77.80%

Kosuke Ogura

Japan

22.20%

Average Odds

2.18  /  1.61

Market probability

42.48%  /  57.52%

Why This Prediction?

Yuta Kikuchi is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1458 vs 1382), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1450 vs 1406) and a stronger return game (39.9% vs 38.6% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1458.0 Elo 1382.5
1450.5 Elo (surface) 1405.5
11 Wins (Challenger) 18
11 Wins (surface) 11
7 Last 15 form 6
0 Head-to-head wins 0
0.944 Dominance ratio 1.063
950 Rank -
27.0 Age 30.6
right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Yuta Kikuchi

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–0L · 100.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

3 matches with market odds since 2026-09-13.

Kosuke Ogura

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

2 matches with market odds since 2026-09-13.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Yuta Kikuchi Kosuke Ogura

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

1st Serve In %

64.3%
64.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.7%
67.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.7%
59.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.3%
27.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.2%
53.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.19
0.36

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19
0.24

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Yuta Kikuchi Kosuke Ogura

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

Break Points Saved %

51.5%
65.7%

Break Points Converted %

40.0%
45.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Yuta Kikuchi and Kosuke Ogura have never played each other.

Yuta Kikuchi — Last 10

L W W L W L W L L W

Kosuke Ogura — Last 10

L W L W L W W L L W