ATP tennis predict — Yu Hsiou Hsu vs Toby Samuel

Challenger Hard Winnipeg challenger · QF

Predicted probability

Yu Hsiou Hsu

Chinese Taipei

41.83%

Toby Samuel

Great Britain

58.17%

Average Odds

4.70 / 1.17

Market probability

19.93% / 80.07%

Why This Prediction?

Toby Samuel is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1834 vs 1660) and a higher Elo rating (1684 vs 1624).

Player Comparison

1624.3 Elo 1683.7

1659.6 Elo (surface) 1833.8

95 Wins (Challenger) 43

86 Wins (surface) 38

9 Last 15 form 11

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.071 Dominance ratio 0.837

210 Rank 127

27.3 Age 23.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Yu Hsiou Hsu

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Toby Samuel

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–1L · 85.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Yu Hsiou Hsu Toby Samuel

1st Serve In %

68.1%

63.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.7%

70.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.1%

52.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.9%

29.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.9%

57.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.48

0.36

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

66.0%

61.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.6%

64.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.1%

42.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.3%

24.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.4%

44.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.50

0.25

Double Faults per Service Game

0.26

0.42

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Yu Hsiou Hsu Toby Samuel

Break Points Saved %

53.2%

63.6%

Break Points Converted %

40.0%

50.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

61.0%

56.8%

Break Points Converted %

43.4%

35.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Yu Hsiou Hsu 0 – 0 Toby Samuel

Hard Winnipeg challenger · 2026-07-24

QF

Toby Samuel #127

Yu Hsiou Hsu #210

6-3 7-6

0 Aces 4

6 Double Faults 2

100 Service Points 61

63 First Serve In 45

42 First Serve Won 35

17 Second Serve Won 12

11 Break Points Saved 0

12 Break Points Faced 0

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.2 Average Odds 4.7

Yu Hsiou Hsu vs Toby Samuel — Prediction