ATP tennis predict — Yosuke Watanuki vs Semen Pankin

Challenger Hard Zhangjiagang challenger · 1. round 09:15

Predicted probability

Yosuke Watanuki

Japan

66.37%

Semen Pankin

Russia

33.63%

Average Odds

1.35 / 2.99

Market probability

68.89% / 31.11%

Why This Prediction?

Yosuke Watanuki is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1605 vs 1502), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1640 vs 1537) and more wins on hard courts (50 vs 0).

Player Comparison

1604.9 Elo 1502.4

1640.0 Elo (surface) 1536.9

156 Wins (Challenger) 9

142 Wins (surface) 9

6 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.061 Dominance ratio 0.892

420 Rank 421

28.4 Age 27.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Yosuke Watanuki

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–3L · 62.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–4L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Semen Pankin

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–6L · 14.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

13 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Yosuke Watanuki Semen Pankin

1st Serve In %

50.8%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

71.9%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.5%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.7%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.7%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.73

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.41

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

54.9%

52.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.7%

69.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.7%

47.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.3%

27.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.7%

46.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.72

0.38

Double Faults per Service Game

0.33

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Yosuke Watanuki Semen Pankin

Break Points Saved %

44.4%

—

Break Points Converted %

33.8%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

66.1%

51.4%

Break Points Converted %

46.3%

33.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Yosuke Watanuki 0 – 0 Semen Pankin

Hard Zhangjiagang challenger · 2026-08-31

1. round

Yosuke Watanuki #420

Semen Pankin #421

6-3 7-5

8 Aces 2

1 Double Faults 3

57 Service Points 75

30 First Serve In 43

25 First Serve Won 26

15 Second Serve Won 16

5 Break Points Saved 6

6 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.4 Average Odds 3.0

Yosuke Watanuki vs Semen Pankin — Prediction