ATP tennis predict — Yosuke Watanuki vs Marat Sharipov

Challenger Hard Shanghai challenger · 1. round 12:00

Predicted probability

Yosuke Watanuki

Japan

46.98%

Marat Sharipov

Russia

53.02%

Average Odds

1.68 / 2.11

Market probability

55.67% / 44.33%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1603.3 Elo 1683.9

1631.9 Elo (surface) 1683.7

157 Wins (Challenger) 50

143 Wins (surface) 41

7 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.104 Dominance ratio 1.099

420 Rank 442

28.4 Age 23.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Yosuke Watanuki

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–3L · 62.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–4L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Marat Sharipov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

12 matches with market odds since 2026-06-29.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Yosuke Watanuki Marat Sharipov

1st Serve In %

50.8%

52.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.9%

70.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.5%

41.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.7%

14.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.7%

42.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.73

0.40

Double Faults per Service Game

0.41

0.50

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

54.9%

54.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.7%

81.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.7%

50.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.3%

18.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.7%

40.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.72

0.67

Double Faults per Service Game

0.33

0.12

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Yosuke Watanuki Marat Sharipov

Break Points Saved %

44.4%

62.5%

Break Points Converted %

33.8%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

66.1%

56.5%

Break Points Converted %

46.3%

33.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Yosuke Watanuki 0 – 0 Marat Sharipov

Hard Shanghai challenger · 2026-09-07

1. round

Marat Sharipov #442

Yosuke Watanuki #420

6-7 7-5 6-2

6 Aces 21

0 Double Faults 3

100 Service Points 98

54 First Serve In 66

44 First Serve Won 54

23 Second Serve Won 19

1 Break Points Saved 4

4 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.1 Average Odds 1.7

Yosuke Watanuki vs Marat Sharipov — Prediction