ATP tennis predict — Yosuke Watanuki vs Kaito Uesugi

Challenger Hard Jinan challenger · qualification - round of 16 05:10

Predicted probability

Yosuke Watanuki

Japan

88.97%

Kaito Uesugi

Japan

11.03%

Average Odds

1.07 / 7.35

Market probability

87.29% / 12.71%

Why This Prediction?

Yosuke Watanuki is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1680 vs 1410), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1671 vs 1386) and more wins on hard courts (50 vs 0).

Player Comparison

1680.4 Elo 1409.8

1671.0 Elo (surface) 1385.7

158 Wins (Challenger) 26

144 Wins (surface) 25

6 Last 15 form 5

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.155 Dominance ratio 0.952

406 Rank 1521

28.5 Age 31.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Yosuke Watanuki

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–3L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–4L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Kaito Uesugi

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

5 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Yosuke Watanuki Kaito Uesugi

1st Serve In %

50.8%

58.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.9%

67.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.5%

40.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.7%

23.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.7%

57.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.73

0.33

Double Faults per Service Game

0.41

0.44

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

54.1%

62.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.6%

65.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.0%

44.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.5%

31.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.6%

49.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.59

0.36

Double Faults per Service Game

0.40

0.36

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Yosuke Watanuki Kaito Uesugi

Break Points Saved %

44.4%

42.9%

Break Points Converted %

33.8%

20.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

60.0%

52.3%

Break Points Converted %

44.8%

41.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Yosuke Watanuki and Kaito Uesugi have never played each other.

Yosuke Watanuki vs Kaito Uesugi — Prediction