ATP tennis predict — Yosuke Watanuki vs Hayato Matsuoka

Challenger Hard Vancouver challenger · 1. round

Predicted probability

Yosuke Watanuki

Japan

57.46%

Hayato Matsuoka

Japan

42.54%

Average Odds

1.39 / 2.82

Market probability

66.98% / 33.02%

Why This Prediction?

Yosuke Watanuki is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1657 vs 1528), a higher Elo rating (1619 vs 1527) and more wins on hard courts (50 vs 0).

Player Comparison

1619.2 Elo 1527.4

1656.7 Elo (surface) 1527.8

156 Wins (Challenger) 37

142 Wins (surface) 36

6 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.068 Dominance ratio 1.132

316 Rank 328

28.3 Age 21.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Yosuke Watanuki

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–3L · 62.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–4L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Hayato Matsuoka

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–4L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–6L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Yosuke Watanuki Hayato Matsuoka

1st Serve In %

50.8%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

71.9%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.5%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.7%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.7%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.73

0.23

Double Faults per Service Game

0.41

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

54.9%

58.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.7%

69.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.7%

43.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.3%

23.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.7%

49.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.72

0.50

Double Faults per Service Game

0.33

0.16

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Yosuke Watanuki Hayato Matsuoka

Break Points Saved %

44.4%

64.3%

Break Points Converted %

33.8%

66.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

66.1%

56.9%

Break Points Converted %

46.3%

45.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Yosuke Watanuki 0 – 0 Hayato Matsuoka

Hard Vancouver challenger · 2026-07-29

1. round

Hayato Matsuoka #328

Yosuke Watanuki #316

6-4 6-2

6 Aces 2

4 Double Faults 4

61 Service Points 53

35 First Serve In 32

23 First Serve Won 24

8 Second Serve Won 9

5 Break Points Saved 1

10 Break Points Faced 3

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.8 Average Odds 1.4

Yosuke Watanuki vs Hayato Matsuoka — Prediction