ATP tennis predict — Yosuke Watanuki vs Andre Ilagan

Challenger Hard Winnipeg challenger · 1. round

Predicted probability

Yosuke Watanuki

Japan

48.57%

Andre Ilagan

USA

51.43%

Average Odds

1.48 / 2.39

Market probability

61.76% / 38.24%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1616.2 Elo 1673.5

1651.2 Elo (surface) 1659.0

155 Wins (Challenger) 75

141 Wins (surface) 72

7 Last 15 form 10

1 Head-to-head wins 0

0.965 Dominance ratio 0.879

316 Rank 248

28.3 Age 25.7

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Yosuke Watanuki

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–3L · 62.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–4L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Andre Ilagan

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 6W–8L · 42.9%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

32 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Yosuke Watanuki Andre Ilagan

1st Serve In %

50.8%

59.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.9%

63.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.5%

52.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.7%

27.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.7%

41.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.73

0.44

Double Faults per Service Game

0.41

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

54.9%

58.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.7%

71.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.7%

56.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.3%

34.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.7%

48.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.72

0.73

Double Faults per Service Game

0.33

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Yosuke Watanuki Andre Ilagan

Break Points Saved %

44.4%

61.8%

Break Points Converted %

33.8%

30.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

66.1%

53.5%

Break Points Converted %

46.3%

34.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Yosuke Watanuki 1 – 0 Andre Ilagan

Hard Winnipeg challenger · 2026-07-21

1. round

Yosuke Watanuki #316

Andre Ilagan #248

7-6 7-5

2 Aces 3

2 Double Faults 0

87 Service Points 89

46 First Serve In 58

27 First Serve Won 29

18 Second Serve Won 14

7 Break Points Saved 5

13 Break Points Faced 12

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.5 Average Odds 2.4

Hard Cary challenger · 2026-06-30

1. round

Yosuke Watanuki #294

Andre Ilagan #263

3-6 6-0 6-3

10 Aces 5

2 Double Faults 3

81 Service Points 79

38 First Serve In 52

31 First Serve Won 31

16 Second Serve Won 10

6 Break Points Saved 8

9 Break Points Faced 14

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.7 Average Odds 1.9

Yosuke Watanuki vs Andre Ilagan — Prediction