ATP tennis predict — Yibing Wu vs Mackenzie Mcdonald

ATP Hard Cincinnati · qualification - 1. round 01:25

Predicted probability

Yibing Wu

China

62.54%

Mackenzie Mcdonald

USA

37.46%

Average Odds

1.47 / 2.59

Market probability

63.79% / 36.21%

Why This Prediction?

Yibing Wu is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1743 vs 1593), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1653 vs 1600) and a stronger return game (36.8% vs 35.7% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1742.7 Elo 1593.2

1653.4 Elo (surface) 1600.4

51 Wins 180

43 Wins (surface) 128

7 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.090 Dominance ratio 0.995

116 Rank 144

26.8 Age 31.3

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Yibing Wu

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Mackenzie Mcdonald

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Yibing Wu Mackenzie Mcdonald

1st Serve In %

60.4%

63.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.3%

66.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.3%

56.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.5%

28.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.0%

47.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.46

0.57

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.5%

64.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.7%

65.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.9%

51.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.3%

32.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.1%

50.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.32

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Yibing Wu Mackenzie Mcdonald

Break Points Saved %

64.6%

60.0%

Break Points Converted %

35.2%

35.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

56.5%

54.8%

Break Points Converted %

41.5%

42.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Yibing Wu 0 – 0 Mackenzie Mcdonald

Hard Cincinnati · 2026-08-12

qualification - 1. round

Yibing Wu #116

Mackenzie Mcdonald #144

7-6 1-6 7-5

9 Aces 5

3 Double Faults 6

100 Service Points 114

62 First Serve In 71

49 First Serve Won 46

18 Second Serve Won 25

5 Break Points Saved 8

7 Break Points Faced 11

18 Winners 33

40 Unforced Errors 56

1.5 Average Odds 2.6

Yibing Wu vs Mackenzie Mcdonald — Prediction