ATP tennis predict — Yibing Wu vs Hayato Matsuoka

ATP Hard Asian Games · SF

Predicted probability

Yibing Wu

China

73.85%

Hayato Matsuoka

Japan

26.15%

Average Odds

- / -

Market probability

- / -

Why This Prediction?

Yibing Wu is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1864 vs 1644), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1864 vs 1630) and a stronger return game (36.8% vs 33.1% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1864.3 Elo 1644

1863.8 Elo (surface) 1629.9

54 Wins 1

46 Wins (surface) 1

5 Last 15 form 1

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.894 Dominance ratio 0.894

111 Rank 243

27.0 Age 21.7

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Yibing Wu

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Hayato Matsuoka

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–4L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–6L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Yibing Wu Hayato Matsuoka

1st Serve In %

60.4%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

71.3%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.3%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.5%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.0%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.46

0.23

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.5%

58.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.7%

69.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.9%

43.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.3%

23.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.1%

49.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.32

0.50

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.16

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Yibing Wu Hayato Matsuoka

Break Points Saved %

64.6%

64.3%

Break Points Converted %

35.2%

66.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

56.5%

56.9%

Break Points Converted %

41.5%

45.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Yibing Wu and Hayato Matsuoka have never played each other.

Yibing Wu vs Hayato Matsuoka — Prediction