ATP tennis predict — Yibing Wu vs Carlos Alcaraz

Grand Slam Hard US Open · 3. round 19:00

Predicted probability

Yibing Wu

China

10.53%

Carlos Alcaraz

Spain

89.47%

Average Odds

9.95 / 1.06

Market probability

9.63% / 90.37%

Why This Prediction?

Carlos Alcaraz is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (2079 vs 1751), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1989 vs 1665) and a stronger return game (42.3% vs 33.2% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1750.7 Elo 2078.7

1664.6 Elo (surface) 1988.6

54 Wins 314

46 Wins (surface) 166

6 Last 15 form 12

0 Head-to-head wins 1

0.887 Dominance ratio 1.153

113 Rank 3

26.9 Age 23.3

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Yibing Wu

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Carlos Alcaraz

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

5 matches with market odds since 2026-08-31.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Yibing Wu Carlos Alcaraz

1st Serve In %

60.4%

61.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.3%

64.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.3%

47.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.5%

36.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.0%

47.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.46

0.33

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.33

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.5%

65.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.7%

68.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.9%

54.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.3%

36.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.1%

54.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.32

0.13

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Yibing Wu Carlos Alcaraz

Break Points Saved %

64.6%

59.5%

Break Points Converted %

35.2%

39.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

56.5%

51.8%

Break Points Converted %

41.5%

53.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Yibing Wu 0 – 1 Carlos Alcaraz

Hard US Open · 2026-09-04

3. round

Carlos Alcaraz #3

Yibing Wu #113

6-3 6-4 6-1

2 Aces 6

5 Double Faults 4

113 Service Points 86

65 First Serve In 58

35 First Serve Won 40

22 Second Serve Won 14

8 Break Points Saved 5

15 Break Points Faced 7

12 Winners 21

39 Unforced Errors 33

1.1 Average Odds 9.9

Hard Shanghai Masters · 2024-10-02

R32

Carlos Alcaraz #2

Yibing Wu #560

7-6(5) 6-3

11 Aces 7

1 Double Faults 1

70 Service Points 69

43 First Serve In 49

35 First Serve Won 36

15 Second Serve Won 10

0 Break Points Saved 2

0 Break Points Faced 3

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Yibing Wu vs Carlos Alcaraz — Prediction