ATP tennis predict — Yibing Wu vs Adam Walton

Grand Slam Hard US Open · 1. round 17:00

Predicted probability

Yibing Wu

China

39.03%

Adam Walton

Australia

60.97%

Average Odds

2.03 / 1.79

Market probability

46.86% / 53.14%

Why This Prediction?

Adam Walton is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1739 vs 1620), a stronger serve (68.4% vs 63.2% of service points won) and a higher Elo rating (1769 vs 1718).

Player Comparison

1718.1 Elo 1768.7

1620.1 Elo (surface) 1739.0

52 Wins 49

44 Wins (surface) 37

6 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.964 Dominance ratio 1.238

113 Rank 93

26.9 Age 27.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Yibing Wu

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Adam Walton

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 7W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–3L · 70.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–6L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

30 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Yibing Wu Adam Walton

1st Serve In %

60.4%

61.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.3%

71.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.3%

54.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.5%

30.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.0%

51.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.46

0.60

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.15

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.5%

60.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.7%

65.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.9%

51.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.3%

25.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.1%

51.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.32

0.47

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Yibing Wu Adam Walton

Break Points Saved %

64.6%

62.7%

Break Points Converted %

35.2%

42.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

56.5%

53.4%

Break Points Converted %

41.5%

48.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Yibing Wu 0 – 0 Adam Walton

Hard US Open · 2026-08-30

1. round

Yibing Wu #113

Adam Walton #93

7-6 6-2 7-5

9 Aces 15

4 Double Faults 5

104 Service Points 100

62 First Serve In 70

48 First Serve Won 52

26 Second Serve Won 14

5 Break Points Saved 8

6 Break Points Faced 12

43 Winners 29

34 Unforced Errors 36

2.0 Average Odds 1.8

Yibing Wu vs Adam Walton — Prediction