ATP tennis predict — Yi Zhou vs Tiago Pereira

Challenger Hard Pozoblanco challenger · R16

Predicted probability

Yi Zhou

China

75.37%

Tiago Pereira

Portugal

24.63%

Average Odds

1.44 / 2.64

Market probability

64.71% / 35.29%

Why This Prediction?

Yi Zhou is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1567 vs 1384), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1525 vs 1472) and more wins on hard courts (7 vs 0).

Player Comparison

1567.2 Elo 1384.5

1525.4 Elo (surface) 1471.7

43 Wins (Challenger) 28

37 Wins (surface) 10

9 Last 15 form 3

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.985 Dominance ratio 0.835

236 Rank 379

21.3 Age 22.1

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Yi Zhou

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-06-08.

Tiago Pereira

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-06-09.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Yi Zhou Tiago Pereira

1st Serve In %

64.6%

56.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.1%

74.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.9%

50.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.6%

39.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.1%

51.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.78

0.42

Double Faults per Service Game

0.12

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.5%

62.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.8%

68.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.5%

52.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.3%

31.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.1%

43.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.54

0.30

Double Faults per Service Game

0.26

0.24

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Yi Zhou Tiago Pereira

Break Points Saved %

66.7%

56.2%

Break Points Converted %

37.3%

39.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

70.0%

64.0%

Break Points Converted %

41.5%

37.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Yi Zhou 0 – 0 Tiago Pereira

Hard Pozoblanco challenger · 2026-07-15

R16

Tiago Pereira #379

Yi Zhou #236

5-7 7-6 6-3

8 Aces 7

5 Double Faults 2

111 Service Points 125

65 First Serve In 78

50 First Serve Won 51

20 Second Serve Won 27

12 Break Points Saved 9

15 Break Points Faced 12

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.6 Average Odds 1.4

Yi Zhou vs Tiago Pereira — Prediction