ATP tennis predict — Yi Zhou vs Pablo Carreno Busta

ATP Hard Beijing · qualification - round of 16 10:15

Predicted probability

Yi Zhou

China

31.34%

Pablo Carreno Busta

Spain

68.66%

Average Odds

3.26 / 1.32

Market probability

28.82% / 71.18%

Why This Prediction?

Pablo Carreno Busta is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1907 vs 1634), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1820 vs 1594) and a stronger return game (42.5% vs 38.0% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1634.2 Elo 1907.0

1593.7 Elo (surface) 1820.2

9 Wins 335

7 Wins (surface) 185

7 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.962 Dominance ratio 0.904

273 Rank 66

21.5 Age 35.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Yi Zhou

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-06-08.

Pablo Carreno Busta

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Yi Zhou Pablo Carreno Busta

1st Serve In %

64.6%

62.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.1%

65.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.9%

48.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.6%

28.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.1%

53.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.76

0.30

Double Faults per Service Game

0.11

0.32

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.5%

68.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.8%

63.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.5%

52.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.3%

38.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.1%

52.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.54

0.17

Double Faults per Service Game

0.26

0.12

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Yi Zhou Pablo Carreno Busta

Break Points Saved %

65.3%

51.8%

Break Points Converted %

35.2%

38.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

70.0%

52.4%

Break Points Converted %

41.5%

45.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Yi Zhou and Pablo Carreno Busta have never played each other.

Yi Zhou vs Pablo Carreno Busta — Prediction