ATP tennis predict — Yi Zhou vs Michael Geerts

Challenger Hard Segovia challenger · 1. round

Predicted probability

Yi Zhou

China

60.36%

Michael Geerts

Belgium

39.64%

Average Odds

1.31 / 3.24

Market probability

71.21% / 28.79%

Why This Prediction?

Yi Zhou is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1539 vs 1520), a stronger return game (39.2% vs 36.1% of return points won) and more wins on hard courts (7 vs 0).

Player Comparison

1539.4 Elo 1520.2

1502.6 Elo (surface) 1595.9

43 Wins (Challenger) 150

37 Wins (surface) 98

8 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.979 Dominance ratio 0.895

232 Rank 342

21.4 Age 31.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Yi Zhou

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-06-08.

Michael Geerts

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

8 matches with market odds since 2026-07-13.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Yi Zhou Michael Geerts

1st Serve In %

64.6%

54.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.1%

69.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.9%

44.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.6%

24.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.1%

50.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.78

0.31

Double Faults per Service Game

0.12

0.24

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.5%

58.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.8%

69.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.5%

51.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.3%

27.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.1%

47.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.54

0.47

Double Faults per Service Game

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Yi Zhou Michael Geerts

Break Points Saved %

66.7%

61.9%

Break Points Converted %

37.3%

33.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

70.0%

53.3%

Break Points Converted %

41.5%

41.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Yi Zhou 0 – 0 Michael Geerts

Hard Segovia challenger · 2026-07-20

1. round

Yi Zhou #232

Michael Geerts #342

6-1 6-4

9 Aces 2

2 Double Faults 3

45 Service Points 43

31 First Serve In 25

27 First Serve Won 16

10 Second Serve Won 8

0 Break Points Saved 1

0 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.2

Yi Zhou vs Michael Geerts — Prediction