ATP tennis predict — Yi Zhou vs Lorenzo Musetti

ATP Hard Shanghai · 2. round 13:30

Predicted probability

Yi Zhou

China

21.26%

Lorenzo Musetti

Italy

78.74%

Average Odds

4.59 / 1.19

Market probability

20.59% / 79.41%

Why This Prediction?

Lorenzo Musetti is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (2085 vs 1658), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1979 vs 1617) and a stronger return game (46.6% vs 38.0% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1658.1 Elo 2084.6

1617.0 Elo (surface) 1978.6

10 Wins 215

8 Wins (surface) 107

7 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.962 Dominance ratio 0.736

277 Rank 25

21.6 Age 24.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Yi Zhou

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-06-08.

Lorenzo Musetti

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

11 matches with market odds since 2026-07-27.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Yi Zhou Lorenzo Musetti

1st Serve In %

63.8%

53.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.8%

65.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.2%

44.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.2%

45.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.62

0.27

Double Faults per Service Game

0.12

0.34

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.5%

63.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.8%

68.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.5%

50.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.3%

39.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.1%

54.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.54

0.17

Double Faults per Service Game

0.26

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Yi Zhou Lorenzo Musetti

Break Points Saved %

66.7%

54.5%

Break Points Converted %

37.3%

35.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

70.0%

65.6%

Break Points Converted %

41.5%

49.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Yi Zhou and Lorenzo Musetti have never played each other.

Yi Zhou vs Lorenzo Musetti — Prediction