ATP tennis predict — Yaroslav Demin vs Akira Santillan

Challenger Hard Wuning 3 challenger · R16 04:00

Predicted probability

Yaroslav Demin

Russia

17.99%

Akira Santillan

Australia

82.01%

Average Odds

2.24 / 1.57

Market probability

41.21% / 58.79%

Why This Prediction?

Akira Santillan is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1566 vs 1372), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1550 vs 1311) and more wins on hard courts (116 vs 2).

Player Comparison

1372.4 Elo 1565.6

1311.2 Elo (surface) 1549.7

4 Wins (Challenger) 164

2 Wins (surface) 116

4 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.838 Dominance ratio 1.002

653 Rank 324

21.1 Age 29.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Yaroslav Demin

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

3 matches with market odds since 2026-08-02.

Akira Santillan

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–9L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Yaroslav Demin Akira Santillan

1st Serve In %

—

59.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

73.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

53.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

27.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

44.4%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.78

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.37

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.4%

62.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.1%

73.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.0%

51.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.1%

35.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.7%

46.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.29

0.56

Double Faults per Service Game

0.49

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Yaroslav Demin Akira Santillan

Break Points Saved %

—

53.6%

Break Points Converted %

—

45.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

63.6%

60.8%

Break Points Converted %

51.2%

37.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Yaroslav Demin and Akira Santillan have never played each other.

Yaroslav Demin vs Akira Santillan — Prediction