ATP tennis predict — Yannick Hanfmann vs Tomas Machac

ATP Hard Beijing · qualification - round of 16 05:10

Predicted probability

Yannick Hanfmann

Germany

40.19%

Tomas Machac

Czech Republic

59.81%

Average Odds

1.72 / 2.07

Market probability

54.62% / 45.38%

Why This Prediction?

Tomas Machac is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1894 vs 1836), more wins on hard courts (91 vs 58) and a higher Elo rating (1955 vs 1928).

Player Comparison

1927.6 Elo 1955.0

1835.8 Elo (surface) 1894.2

195 Wins 126

58 Wins (surface) 91

8 Last 15 form 7

1 Head-to-head wins 1

1.163 Dominance ratio 1.050

54 Rank 75

34.9 Age 26.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Yannick Hanfmann

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Tomas Machac

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

5 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Yannick Hanfmann Tomas Machac

1st Serve In %

60.7%

63.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.3%

72.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.8%

50.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.7%

32.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.3%

48.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.63

0.45

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.1%

63.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.8%

74.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.1%

65.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.3%

31.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.9%

56.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.81

0.38

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

0.18

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Yannick Hanfmann Tomas Machac

Break Points Saved %

66.7%

58.0%

Break Points Converted %

44.1%

37.5%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

55.0%

73.0%

Break Points Converted %

46.5%

47.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Yannick Hanfmann 1 – 1 Tomas Machac

Clay Houston · 2023-04-03

QF

Yannick Hanfmann #134

Tomas Machac #138

6-2 6-1

7 Aces 1

0 Double Faults 1

43 Service Points 46

33 First Serve In 28

25 First Serve Won 12

8 Second Serve Won 10

1 Break Points Saved 4

1 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Helsinki CH · 2022-11-14

SF

Tomas Machac #112

Yannick Hanfmann #140

6-1 6-2

3 Aces 4

0 Double Faults 1

41 Service Points 53

27 First Serve In 34

19 First Serve Won 18

13 Second Serve Won 6

0 Break Points Saved 8

0 Break Points Faced 12