ATP tennis predict — Yannick Hanfmann vs Sebastian Baez

ATP Clay Kitzbühel · QF

Predicted probability

Yannick Hanfmann

Germany

33.63%

Sebastian Baez

Argentina

66.37%

Average Odds

1.73 / 2.10

Market probability

54.83% / 45.17%

Why This Prediction?

Sebastian Baez is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1835 vs 1730), a stronger return game (46.2% vs 39.7% of return points won) and a higher Elo rating (1782 vs 1754).

Player Comparison

1754.2 Elo 1782.2

1730.2 Elo (surface) 1834.9

191 Wins 145

111 Wins (surface) 104

8 Last 15 form 7

1 Head-to-head wins 1

0.789 Dominance ratio 0.841

52 Rank 56

34.7 Age 25.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Yannick Hanfmann

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Sebastian Baez

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–6L · 14.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Yannick Hanfmann Sebastian Baez

1st Serve In %

60.7%

63.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.3%

59.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.8%

50.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.7%

22.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.3%

49.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.63

0.18

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.1%

66.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.8%

74.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.1%

57.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.3%

38.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.9%

57.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.81

0.33

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Yannick Hanfmann Sebastian Baez

Break Points Saved %

66.7%

52.7%

Break Points Converted %

44.1%

36.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

55.0%

57.1%

Break Points Converted %

46.5%

43.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Yannick Hanfmann 1 – 1 Sebastian Baez

Clay Kitzbühel · 2026-07-23

QF

Yannick Hanfmann #52

Sebastian Baez #56

6-3 6-1

7 Aces 0

0 Double Faults 1

55 Service Points 61

31 First Serve In 40

23 First Serve Won 19

15 Second Serve Won 11

4 Break Points Saved 4

4 Break Points Faced 8

28 Winners 13

26 Unforced Errors 24

1.7 Average Odds 2.1

Clay Kitzbuhel · 2025-07-21

R16

Yannick Hanfmann #141

Sebastian Baez #43

5-7 6-3 7-5

4 Aces 2

1 Double Faults 5

105 Service Points 117

74 First Serve In 77

51 First Serve Won 52

17 Second Serve Won 18

4 Break Points Saved 8

7 Break Points Faced 13

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Rio de Janeiro · 2022-02-14

Q2

Sebastian Baez #72

Yannick Hanfmann #118

2-6 7-6(2) 7-6(2)

1 Aces 8

4 Double Faults 2

106 Service Points 94

79 First Serve In 68

45 First Serve Won 41

11 Second Serve Won 11

3 Break Points Saved 4

11 Break Points Faced 10