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Yannick Hanfmann vs Alejandro Tabilo — Prediction

Grand Slam Hard US Open · 1. round 21:00

Predicted probability

Yannick Hanfmann

Germany

37.33%

Alejandro Tabilo

Chile

62.67%

Average Odds

2.19  /  1.69

Market probability

43.56%  /  56.44%

Why This Prediction?

Alejandro Tabilo is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1750 vs 1622), a higher Elo rating (1793 vs 1768) and more career match wins (143 vs 136).

Player Comparison

1768.1 Elo 1792.9
1622.0 Elo (surface) 1749.7
195 Wins 135
58 Wins (surface) 65
9 Last 15 form 6
1 Head-to-head wins 2
1.149 Dominance ratio 0.877
54 Rank 28
34.8 Age 29.2
right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Yannick Hanfmann

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–4L · 60.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–4L · 42.9%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Alejandro Tabilo

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–1L · 83.3%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–6L · 25.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Yannick Hanfmann Alejandro Tabilo

1st Serve In %

60.7%
59.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.3%
73.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.8%
50.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.7%
20.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.3%
43.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.63
0.66

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30
0.28

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.1%
61.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.8%
76.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.1%
51.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.3%
34.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.9%
53.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.81
0.41

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16
0.14

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Yannick Hanfmann Alejandro Tabilo

Break Points Saved %

66.7%
60.9%

Break Points Converted %

44.1%
32.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

55.0%
73.0%

Break Points Converted %

46.5%
43.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Yannick Hanfmann 1 – 2 Alejandro Tabilo

Hard US Open · 2026-08-31

1. round

Alejandro Tabilo #28

Yannick Hanfmann #54

6-3 6-2 6-7 6-3
13 Aces 9
6 Double Faults 4
105 Service Points 114
59 First Serve In 71
45 First Serve Won 60
20 Second Serve Won 24
5 Break Points Saved 4
10 Break Points Faced 5
43 Winners 30
49 Unforced Errors 20
1.7 Average Odds 2.2
Hard Davis Cup Finals RR: GER vs CHI · 2024-09-12

RR

Yannick Hanfmann #96

Alejandro Tabilo #22

7-5 6-4
13 Aces 11
1 Double Faults 2
66 Service Points 73
51 First Serve In 51
41 First Serve Won 34
7 Second Serve Won 13
1 Break Points Saved 3
1 Break Points Faced 5
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Clay Rome Masters · 2024-05-06

R64

Alejandro Tabilo #32

Yannick Hanfmann #59

6-3 7-6(4)
7 Aces 5
2 Double Faults 2
89 Service Points 73
56 First Serve In 46
45 First Serve Won 30
12 Second Serve Won 14
7 Break Points Saved 3
8 Break Points Faced 5
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Clay Buenos Aires · 2024-02-12

R32

Alejandro Tabilo #54

Yannick Hanfmann #56

6-1 6-3
3 Aces 1
1 Double Faults 4
64 Service Points 54
44 First Serve In 35
29 First Serve Won 22
12 Second Serve Won 6
7 Break Points Saved 3
7 Break Points Faced 7
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -

Yannick Hanfmann — Last 10

L L W L W W L W W W

Alejandro Tabilo — Last 10

L W W L W L L W W W