ATP tennis predict — Yanki Erel vs Sergey Fomin

Challenger Hard Segovia challenger · 1. round

Predicted probability

Yanki Erel

Turkey

55.76%

Sergey Fomin

Uzbekistan

44.24%

Average Odds

1.40 / 2.79

Market probability

66.59% / 33.41%

Why This Prediction?

Yanki Erel is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1508 vs 1452), fewer double faults per game (0.10 vs 0.20) and a stronger serve (62.1% vs 58.2% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1507.6 Elo 1451.7

1543.2 Elo (surface) 1509.9

36 Wins (Challenger) 53

28 Wins (surface) 27

9 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 1

1.045 Dominance ratio 1.030

299 Rank 302

25.8 Age 25.5

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Yanki Erel

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–5L · 37.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-06-16.

Sergey Fomin

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–6L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Yanki Erel Sergey Fomin

1st Serve In %

60.4%

64.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.8%

63.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.6%

50.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

22.3%

23.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.9%

50.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.26

0.50

Double Faults per Service Game

0.34

0.25

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

63.8%

55.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.9%

71.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.8%

56.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

22.7%

30.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.3%

54.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.31

0.57

Double Faults per Service Game

0.33

0.32

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Yanki Erel Sergey Fomin

Break Points Saved %

61.3%

69.2%

Break Points Converted %

52.4%

40.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

64.2%

62.5%

Break Points Converted %

29.1%

38.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Yanki Erel 0 – 1 Sergey Fomin

Hard Segovia challenger · 2026-07-21

1. round

Yanki Erel #299

Sergey Fomin #302

6-2 3-6 7-6

7 Aces 6

4 Double Faults 5

93 Service Points 102

62 First Serve In 62

44 First Serve Won 44

17 Second Serve Won 20

8 Break Points Saved 4

10 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.4 Average Odds 2.8

Hard Astana CH · 2024-07-15

R16

Sergey Fomin #582

Yanki Erel #448

5-4 RET

2 Aces 2

1 Double Faults 1

41 Service Points 42

29 First Serve In 29

19 First Serve Won 16

4 Second Serve Won 6

3 Break Points Saved 4

4 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Yanki Erel vs Sergey Fomin — Prediction