ATP tennis predict — Yanki Erel vs Mattia Bellucci

Challenger Hard Jingshan challenger · SF 09:00

Predicted probability

Yanki Erel

Turkey

17.48%

Mattia Bellucci

Italy

82.52%

Average Odds

3.63 / 1.26

Market probability

25.77% / 74.23%

Why This Prediction?

Mattia Bellucci is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1896 vs 1693), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1839 vs 1706) and a stronger serve (65.3% vs 59.3% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1693.4 Elo 1895.7

1706.2 Elo (surface) 1839.0

46 Wins (Challenger) 99

38 Wins (surface) 73

10 Last 15 form 11

0 Head-to-head wins 1

0.812 Dominance ratio 1.193

331 Rank 91

26.0 Age 25.3

left Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Yanki Erel

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–5L · 44.4%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-06-16.

Mattia Bellucci

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Yanki Erel Mattia Bellucci

1st Serve In %

60.4%

59.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.8%

73.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.6%

47.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

22.3%

27.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.9%

42.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.26

0.55

Double Faults per Service Game

0.34

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

65.1%

62.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.3%

74.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.0%

46.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.5%

33.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.5%

45.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.33

0.57

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Yanki Erel Mattia Bellucci

Break Points Saved %

61.3%

62.3%

Break Points Converted %

52.4%

27.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

61.4%

57.5%

Break Points Converted %

34.0%

42.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Yanki Erel 0 – 1 Mattia Bellucci

Hard Manama CH · 2026-01-27

R32

Mattia Bellucci #76

Yanki Erel #451

6-4 6-4

8 Aces 2

3 Double Faults 2

62 Service Points 55

33 First Serve In 39

26 First Serve Won 30

16 Second Serve Won 5

2 Break Points Saved 0

2 Break Points Faced 2

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Yanki Erel vs Mattia Bellucci — Prediction