ATP tennis predict — Yanki Erel vs Jay Dylan Hara Friend

Challenger Hard Istanbul challenger · QF 11:30

Predicted probability

Yanki Erel

Turkey

38.28%

Jay Dylan Hara Friend

Japan

61.72%

Average Odds

2.14 / 1.65

Market probability

43.54% / 56.46%

Why This Prediction?

Jay Dylan Hara Friend is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1760 vs 1635), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1730 vs 1649) and a stronger serve (63.8% vs 59.3% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1635.1 Elo 1760.5

1648.6 Elo (surface) 1730.4

43 Wins (Challenger) 30

35 Wins (surface) 30

10 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.812 Dominance ratio 1.032

305 Rank 312

26.0 Age 22.7

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Yanki Erel

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–5L · 37.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-06-16.

Jay Dylan Hara Friend

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–7L · 53.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

29 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Yanki Erel Jay Dylan Hara Friend

1st Serve In %

60.4%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

70.8%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.6%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

22.3%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.9%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.26

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.34

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

63.8%

58.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.9%

65.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.8%

54.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

22.7%

30.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.3%

47.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.31

0.39

Double Faults per Service Game

0.33

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Yanki Erel Jay Dylan Hara Friend

Break Points Saved %

61.3%

—

Break Points Converted %

52.4%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

64.2%

52.3%

Break Points Converted %

29.1%

42.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Yanki Erel 0 – 0 Jay Dylan Hara Friend

Hard Istanbul challenger · 2026-09-11

QF

Jay Dylan Hara Friend #312

Yanki Erel #305

3-6 6-4 6-3

6 Aces 4

4 Double Faults 6

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

42 First Serve Won 52

16 Second Serve Won 9

5 Break Points Saved 5

8 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.6 Average Odds 2.1

Yanki Erel vs Jay Dylan Hara Friend — Prediction