ATP tennis predict — Yanki Erel vs Federico Cina

Challenger Hard Jingshan challenger · QF 09:00

Predicted probability

Yanki Erel

Turkey

31.28%

Federico Cina

Italy

68.72%

Average Odds

3.28 / 1.30

Market probability

28.38% / 71.62%

Why This Prediction?

Federico Cina is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1750 vs 1669), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1720 vs 1682) and a stronger return game (39.5% vs 33.0% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1669.3 Elo 1749.9

1681.7 Elo (surface) 1719.5

45 Wins (Challenger) 47

37 Wins (surface) 31

10 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.812 Dominance ratio 0.973

331 Rank 150

26.0 Age 19.5

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Yanki Erel

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–5L · 44.4%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-06-16.

Federico Cina

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–7L · 53.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Yanki Erel Federico Cina

1st Serve In %

60.4%

56.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.8%

70.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.6%

45.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

22.3%

27.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.9%

55.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.26

0.41

Double Faults per Service Game

0.34

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.1%

55.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.3%

65.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.4%

49.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

22.7%

32.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.6%

48.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.31

0.45

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32

0.35

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Yanki Erel Federico Cina

Break Points Saved %

61.3%

52.4%

Break Points Converted %

52.4%

37.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

62.9%

55.1%

Break Points Converted %

29.5%

43.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Yanki Erel and Federico Cina have never played each other.

Yanki Erel vs Federico Cina — Prediction