ATP tennis predict — Yanki Erel vs Dominik Palan

Challenger Hard Segovia challenger · R16

Predicted probability

Yanki Erel

Turkey

52.94%

Dominik Palan

Czech Republic

47.06%

Average Odds

1.26 / 3.60

Market probability

74.07% / 25.93%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1525.0 Elo 1499.3

1564.8 Elo (surface) 1542.0

37 Wins (Challenger) 41

29 Wins (surface) 41

9 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.094 Dominance ratio 1.078

299 Rank 465

25.8 Age 25.8

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Yanki Erel

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–5L · 37.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-06-16.

Dominik Palan

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–7L · 30.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Yanki Erel Dominik Palan

1st Serve In %

60.4%

65.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.8%

77.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.6%

38.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

22.3%

26.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.9%

45.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.26

0.75

Double Faults per Service Game

0.34

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

63.8%

56.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.9%

73.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.8%

49.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

22.7%

29.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.3%

51.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.31

0.55

Double Faults per Service Game

0.33

0.47

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Yanki Erel Dominik Palan

Break Points Saved %

61.3%

67.5%

Break Points Converted %

52.4%

33.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

64.2%

67.2%

Break Points Converted %

29.1%

44.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Yanki Erel 0 – 0 Dominik Palan

Hard Segovia challenger · 2026-07-23

R16

Yanki Erel #299

Dominik Palan #465

3-6 7-6 6-2

6 Aces 9

5 Double Faults 10

98 Service Points 106

66 First Serve In 59

46 First Serve Won 45

20 Second Serve Won 21

5 Break Points Saved 5

7 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.6

Yanki Erel vs Dominik Palan — Prediction