ATP tennis predict — Yanis Ghazouani Durand vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Challenger Hard Mouilleron-Le-Captif challenger · 1. round 12:30

Predicted probability

Yanis Ghazouani Durand

France

19.38%

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Norway

80.62%

Average Odds

4.15 / 1.18

Market probability

22.14% / 77.86%

Why This Prediction?

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1745 vs 1572), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1727 vs 1632) and more career match wins (54 vs 11).

Player Comparison

1571.5 Elo 1745.1

1631.7 Elo (surface) 1726.5

11 Wins (Challenger) 54

10 Wins (surface) 33

9 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 1

1.111 Dominance ratio 0.975

517 Rank 154

26.2 Age 20.1

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Yanis Ghazouani Durand

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

13 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–6L · 25.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Yanis Ghazouani Durand Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

1st Serve In %

—

57.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

71.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

52.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

32.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

52.0%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.31

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.3%

61.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

76.5%

69.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

61.8%

58.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.6%

26.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

61.7%

47.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.38

0.39

Double Faults per Service Game

0.42

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Yanis Ghazouani Durand Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Break Points Saved %

—

67.1%

Break Points Converted %

—

36.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

51.5%

54.9%

Break Points Converted %

50.0%

47.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Yanis Ghazouani Durand 0 – 1 Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Hard Cassis challenger · 2026-09-10

R16

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer #149

Yanis Ghazouani Durand #595

6-1 7-6

4 Aces 2

2 Double Faults 8

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

29 First Serve Won 23

7 Second Serve Won 9

1 Break Points Saved 5

4 Break Points Faced 11

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.1 Average Odds 5.2

Yanis Ghazouani Durand vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer — Prediction