ATP tennis predict — Yanis Ghazouani Durand vs Karl Poling

Challenger Hard St. Tropez challenger · qualification - round of 16 13:00

Predicted probability

Yanis Ghazouani Durand

France

62.24%

Karl Poling

USA

37.76%

Average Odds

1.38 / 2.71

Market probability

66.26% / 33.74%

Why This Prediction?

Yanis Ghazouani Durand is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1654 vs 1435), a higher Elo rating (1581 vs 1467) and a stronger return game (41.2% vs 35.9% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1580.7 Elo 1467.1

1654.4 Elo (surface) 1434.7

10 Wins (Challenger) 33

9 Wins (surface) 23

9 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.111 Dominance ratio 0.929

547 Rank 457

26.2 Age 27.1

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Yanis Ghazouani Durand

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

12 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Karl Poling

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–5L · 28.6%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Yanis Ghazouani Durand Karl Poling

1st Serve In %

—

65.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

66.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

48.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

19.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

32.4%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.16

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.38

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.4%

65.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.9%

64.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

61.1%

51.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.8%

31.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

61.1%

44.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.34

0.40

Double Faults per Service Game

0.38

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Yanis Ghazouani Durand Karl Poling

Break Points Saved %

—

67.9%

Break Points Converted %

—

57.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

54.3%

60.7%

Break Points Converted %

44.9%

37.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Yanis Ghazouani Durand 0 – 0 Karl Poling

Hard St. Tropez challenger · 2026-09-20

qualification - 1. round

Karl Poling #460

Yanis Ghazouani Durand #521

6-2 6-1

2 Aces 6

4 Double Faults 3

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

13 First Serve Won 29

3 Second Serve Won 4

2 Break Points Saved 0

6 Break Points Faced 0

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Yanis Ghazouani Durand vs Karl Poling — Prediction