ATP tennis predict — Yanaki Milev vs Juan Manuel La Serna

Challenger Clay Plovdiv 3 challenger · QF 13:30

Predicted probability

Yanaki Milev

Bulgaria

36.27%

Juan Manuel La Serna

Argentina

63.73%

Average Odds

3.37 / 1.29

Market probability

27.68% / 72.32%

Why This Prediction?

Juan Manuel La Serna is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1651 vs 1448), a higher Elo rating (1630 vs 1472) and fewer double faults per game (0.19 vs 0.24).

Player Comparison

1472.3 Elo 1629.7

1448.1 Elo (surface) 1650.6

17 Wins (Challenger) 45

16 Wins (surface) 43

8 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.025 Dominance ratio 0.842

866 Rank 289

22.4 Age 22.6

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Yanaki Milev

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

10 matches with market odds since 2026-08-03.

Juan Manuel La Serna

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-06-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Yanaki Milev Juan Manuel La Serna

1st Serve In %

58.9%

64.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

63.4%

57.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.0%

50.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.5%

22.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.6%

20.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.25

Double Faults per Service Game

0.50

0.38

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

63.4%

61.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

63.9%

65.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.2%

48.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.2%

30.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.9%

47.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.16

0.23

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Yanaki Milev Juan Manuel La Serna

Break Points Saved %

51.6%

55.6%

Break Points Converted %

31.2%

0.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

64.9%

48.5%

Break Points Converted %

38.1%

27.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Yanaki Milev 0 – 0 Juan Manuel La Serna

Clay Plovdiv 3 challenger · 2026-09-04

QF

Yanaki Milev #866

Juan Manuel La Serna #289

6-3 3-6 6-1

2 Aces 3

3 Double Faults 0

102 Service Points 79

61 First Serve In 56

40 First Serve Won 34

21 Second Serve Won 11

16 Break Points Saved 7

18 Break Points Faced 11

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

3.4 Average Odds 1.3

Yanaki Milev vs Juan Manuel La Serna — Prediction