ATP tennis predict — Vilius Gaubas vs Thiago Monteiro

Challenger Clay San Marino challenger · QF

Predicted probability

Vilius Gaubas

Lithuania

41.39%

Thiago Monteiro

Brazil

58.61%

Average Odds

1.64 / 2.16

Market probability

56.84% / 43.16%

Why This Prediction?

Thiago Monteiro is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1702 vs 1602), more wins on clay courts (235 vs 69) and a higher Elo rating (1670 vs 1647).

Player Comparison

1647.4 Elo 1670.2

1602.0 Elo (surface) 1702.2

78 Wins (Challenger) 249

69 Wins (surface) 235

7 Last 15 form 11

0 Head-to-head wins 2

1.053 Dominance ratio 1.277

128 Rank 303

21.6 Age 32.2

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Vilius Gaubas

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–4L · 55.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–6L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Thiago Monteiro

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–4L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-07-11.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Vilius Gaubas Thiago Monteiro

1st Serve In %

61.7%

66.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.6%

72.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.5%

48.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.9%

25.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.7%

50.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.35

0.45

Double Faults per Service Game

0.13

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

63.4%

56.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.8%

63.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.5%

51.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.4%

25.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.8%

44.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.24

0.23

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Vilius Gaubas Thiago Monteiro

Break Points Saved %

71.9%

64.3%

Break Points Converted %

34.0%

40.4%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

57.8%

53.6%

Break Points Converted %

45.8%

37.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Vilius Gaubas 0 – 2 Thiago Monteiro

Clay San Marino challenger · 2026-07-31

QF

Vilius Gaubas #128

Thiago Monteiro #303

7-6 7-6

3 Aces 6

1 Double Faults 1

88 Service Points 78

56 First Serve In 48

41 First Serve Won 36

18 Second Serve Won 18

4 Break Points Saved 1

5 Break Points Faced 2

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.6 Average Odds 2.2

Clay Bastad · 2025-07-14

Q2

Thiago Monteiro #152

Vilius Gaubas #143

1-6 6-2 6-3

3 Aces 0

1 Double Faults 4

65 Service Points 73

37 First Serve In 51

30 First Serve Won 35

14 Second Serve Won 9

2 Break Points Saved 7

4 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Bad Waltersdorf CH · 2024-09-16

R32

Thiago Monteiro #76

Vilius Gaubas #183

7-5 6-3

6 Aces 2

0 Double Faults 0

45 Service Points 75

28 First Serve In 47

25 First Serve Won 33

15 Second Serve Won 11

0 Break Points Saved 1

0 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Vilius Gaubas vs Thiago Monteiro — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Vilius Gaubas — Last 10

Thiago Monteiro — Last 10