ATP tennis predict — Vilius Gaubas vs Marco Cecchinato

Grand Slam Hard US Open · qualification - 2. round 18:30

Predicted probability

Vilius Gaubas

Lithuania

56.97%

Marco Cecchinato

Italy

43.03%

Average Odds

1.26 / 3.66

Market probability

74.39% / 25.61%

Why This Prediction?

Vilius Gaubas is the favorite because he has a stronger return game (37.3% vs 35.2% of return points won), fewer double faults per game (0.05 vs 0.11) and a better head-to-head record against Marco Cecchinato (2-0).

Player Comparison

1656.1 Elo 1728.5

1472.4 Elo (surface) 1504.8

30 Wins 158

8 Wins (surface) 24

7 Last 15 form 5

2 Head-to-head wins 0

1.022 Dominance ratio 1.114

120 Rank 166

21.7 Age 33.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Vilius Gaubas

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–4L · 55.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–6L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Marco Cecchinato

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 14W–3L · 82.4%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

31 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Vilius Gaubas Marco Cecchinato

1st Serve In %

61.7%

63.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.6%

68.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.5%

56.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.9%

30.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.7%

51.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.35

0.24

Double Faults per Service Game

0.13

0.18

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

63.4%

61.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.8%

65.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.5%

53.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.4%

33.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.8%

53.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.24

0.19

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.16

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Vilius Gaubas Marco Cecchinato

Break Points Saved %

71.9%

65.4%

Break Points Converted %

34.0%

37.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

57.8%

65.3%

Break Points Converted %

45.8%

48.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Vilius Gaubas 2 – 0 Marco Cecchinato

Hard US Open · 2026-08-26

qualification - 2. round

Vilius Gaubas #120

Marco Cecchinato #166

6-4 6-3

4 Aces 3

2 Double Faults 4

49 Service Points 63

31 First Serve In 35

25 First Serve Won 23

10 Second Serve Won 12

1 Break Points Saved 7

2 Break Points Faced 11

25 Winners 8

15 Unforced Errors 24

1.3 Average Odds 3.7

Clay Braga CH · 2025-09-29

R16

Vilius Gaubas #143

Marco Cecchinato #271

6-4 6-7(3) 6-3

1 Aces 2

0 Double Faults 4

114 Service Points 133

91 First Serve In 74

55 First Serve Won 45

15 Second Serve Won 30

9 Break Points Saved 17

12 Break Points Faced 22

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Trieste CH · 2024-07-08

R32

Vilius Gaubas #266

Marco Cecchinato #356

7-6(8) 7-6(3)

2 Aces 0

2 Double Faults 9

92 Service Points 95

59 First Serve In 50

39 First Serve Won 30

17 Second Serve Won 22

4 Break Points Saved 4

8 Break Points Faced 8