ATP tennis predict — Vilius Gaubas vs Luka Pavlovic

Challenger Clay San Marino challenger · 1. round

Predicted probability

Vilius Gaubas

Lithuania

58.24%

Luka Pavlovic

France

41.76%

Average Odds

1.44 / 2.60

Market probability

64.36% / 35.64%

Why This Prediction?

Vilius Gaubas is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1570 vs 1512), a stronger return game (38.2% vs 35.1% of return points won) and more wins on clay courts (17 vs 0).

Player Comparison

1618.9 Elo 1622.3

1569.9 Elo (surface) 1511.5

76 Wins (Challenger) 56

67 Wins (surface) 46

7 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.896 Dominance ratio 1.043

128 Rank 208

21.6 Age 26.3

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Vilius Gaubas

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–4L · 55.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–6L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Luka Pavlovic

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–4L · 55.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Vilius Gaubas Luka Pavlovic

1st Serve In %

61.7%

53.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.6%

74.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.5%

45.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.9%

24.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.7%

43.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.35

0.84

Double Faults per Service Game

0.13

0.35

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

63.4%

63.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.8%

71.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.5%

52.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.4%

26.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.8%

40.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.24

0.67

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.25

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Vilius Gaubas Luka Pavlovic

Break Points Saved %

71.9%

63.6%

Break Points Converted %

34.0%

29.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

57.8%

62.1%

Break Points Converted %

45.8%

31.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Vilius Gaubas 0 – 0 Luka Pavlovic

Clay San Marino challenger · 2026-07-28

1. round

Vilius Gaubas #128

Luka Pavlovic #208

6-1 7-5

2 Aces 3

1 Double Faults 2

46 Service Points 54

27 First Serve In 35

24 First Serve Won 22

15 Second Serve Won 6

0 Break Points Saved 2

1 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.4 Average Odds 2.6

Vilius Gaubas vs Luka Pavlovic — Prediction