ATP tennis predict — Vilius Gaubas vs Luka Mikrut

Challenger Clay Braga challenger · QF 15:30

Predicted probability

Vilius Gaubas

Lithuania

38.85%

Luka Mikrut

Croatia

61.15%

Average Odds

2.71 / 1.42

Market probability

34.38% / 65.62%

Why This Prediction?

Luka Mikrut is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1932 vs 1690), a higher Elo rating (1866 vs 1768) and a stronger serve (64.8% vs 62.4% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1767.6 Elo 1865.7

1689.9 Elo (surface) 1931.7

81 Wins (Challenger) 67

72 Wins (surface) 60

7 Last 15 form 13

0 Head-to-head wins 1

1.008 Dominance ratio 1.032

141 Rank 167

21.8 Age 22.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Vilius Gaubas

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–6L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Luka Mikrut

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–1L · 87.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Vilius Gaubas Luka Mikrut

1st Serve In %

61.7%

59.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.6%

70.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.5%

56.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.9%

25.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.7%

48.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.35

0.41

Double Faults per Service Game

0.13

0.17

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

63.2%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

69.5%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.6%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

34.6%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.8%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.25

0.14

Double Faults per Service Game

0.18

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Vilius Gaubas Luka Mikrut

Break Points Saved %

71.9%

55.2%

Break Points Converted %

34.0%

28.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

60.0%

50.9%

Break Points Converted %

51.5%

34.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Vilius Gaubas 0 – 1 Luka Mikrut

Clay Braga CH · 2025-09-29

F

Luka Mikrut #239

Vilius Gaubas #143

6-3 6-4

2 Aces 2

2 Double Faults 2

75 Service Points 67

33 First Serve In 48

24 First Serve Won 24

21 Second Serve Won 9

5 Break Points Saved 5

7 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Vilius Gaubas vs Luka Mikrut — Prediction