ATP tennis predict — Vilius Gaubas vs Harry Wendelken

Grand Slam Hard US Open · qualification - 3. round 17:00

Predicted probability

Vilius Gaubas

Lithuania

27.78%

Harry Wendelken

Great Britain

72.22%

Average Odds

1.78 / 1.94

Market probability

52.15% / 47.85%

Why This Prediction?

Harry Wendelken is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1715 vs 1506), more wins on hard courts (42 vs 9) and a stronger return game (42.0% vs 37.3% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1675.9 Elo 1622.8

1506.1 Elo (surface) 1715.4

31 Wins 4

9 Wins (surface) 2

8 Last 15 form 4

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.033 Dominance ratio 0.910

120 Rank 196

21.7 Age 24.7

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Vilius Gaubas

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–4L · 55.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–6L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Harry Wendelken

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–5L · 28.6%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Vilius Gaubas Harry Wendelken

1st Serve In %

61.7%

54.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.6%

69.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.5%

49.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.9%

28.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.7%

46.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.35

0.48

Double Faults per Service Game

0.13

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

63.4%

58.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.8%

69.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.5%

48.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.4%

31.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.8%

56.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.24

0.61

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.38

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Vilius Gaubas Harry Wendelken

Break Points Saved %

71.9%

68.0%

Break Points Converted %

34.0%

39.5%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

57.8%

57.4%

Break Points Converted %

45.8%

44.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Vilius Gaubas 0 – 0 Harry Wendelken

Hard US Open · 2026-08-28

qualification - 3. round

Harry Wendelken #196

Vilius Gaubas #120

6-7 7-6 7-6

11 Aces 10

2 Double Faults 3

134 Service Points 120

85 First Serve In 64

58 First Serve Won 53

24 Second Serve Won 27

8 Break Points Saved 4

11 Break Points Faced 7

42 Winners 26

62 Unforced Errors 29

1.9 Average Odds 1.8

Vilius Gaubas vs Harry Wendelken — Prediction