ATP tennis predict — Valerio Aboian vs Sebastian Sorger

Challenger Clay Plovdiv 3 challenger · R16 10:10

Predicted probability

Valerio Aboian

Argentina

52.68%

Sebastian Sorger

Austria

47.32%

Average Odds

3.12 / 1.33

Market probability

29.89% / 70.11%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1520.6 Elo 1426.0

1539.8 Elo (surface) 1450.5

67 Wins (Challenger) 6

67 Wins (surface) 6

8 Last 15 form 4

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.736 Dominance ratio 0.832

431 Rank 364

24.2 Age 20.7

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Valerio Aboian

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-06-25.

Sebastian Sorger

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

6 matches with market odds since 2026-06-07.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Valerio Aboian Sebastian Sorger

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

1st Serve In %

56.8%

66.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.8%

58.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.6%

55.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

41.9%

29.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.7%

44.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.40

0.23

Double Faults per Service Game

0.12

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Valerio Aboian Sebastian Sorger

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

Break Points Saved %

64.0%

54.3%

Break Points Converted %

43.0%

32.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Valerio Aboian 0 – 0 Sebastian Sorger

Clay Plovdiv 3 challenger · 2026-09-03

R16

Valerio Aboian #431

Sebastian Sorger #364

6-7 6-0 6-2

3 Aces 0

1 Double Faults 3

94 Service Points 89

49 First Serve In 59

33 First Serve Won 33

28 Second Serve Won 14

9 Break Points Saved 7

11 Break Points Faced 14

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

3.1 Average Odds 1.3

Valerio Aboian vs Sebastian Sorger — Prediction