ATP tennis predict — Valerio Aboian vs Maximilian Homberg

Challenger Clay Todi challenger · qualification - 1. round 10:05

Predicted probability

Valerio Aboian

Argentina

67.61%

Maximilian Homberg

Germany

32.39%

Average Odds

1.58 / 2.28

Market probability

59.07% / 40.93%

Why This Prediction?

Valerio Aboian is the favorite because he has more career match wins (66 vs 3), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1541 vs 1500) and more wins on clay courts (66 vs 0).

Player Comparison

1517.6 Elo 1556.7

1541.3 Elo (surface) 1500

66 Wins (Challenger) 3

66 Wins (surface) 0

8 Last 15 form 3

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.900 Dominance ratio 1.229

428 Rank 819

24.2 Age 23.5

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Valerio Aboian

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-06-25.

Maximilian Homberg

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

2 matches with market odds since 2026-08-09.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Valerio Aboian Maximilian Homberg

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

1st Serve In %

56.8%

56.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.8%

69.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.6%

50.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

41.9%

40.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.7%

55.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.40

0.21

Double Faults per Service Game

0.12

0.44

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Valerio Aboian Maximilian Homberg

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

Break Points Saved %

64.0%

55.2%

Break Points Converted %

43.0%

50.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Valerio Aboian 0 – 0 Maximilian Homberg

Clay Todi challenger · 2026-08-09

qualification - 1. round

Maximilian Homberg #819

Valerio Aboian #428

6-4 6-4

3 Aces 2

1 Double Faults 2

60 Service Points 69

33 First Serve In 35

25 First Serve Won 27

16 Second Serve Won 20

3 Break Points Saved 6

5 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.3 Average Odds 1.6

Valerio Aboian vs Maximilian Homberg — Prediction