ATP tennis predict — Valerio Aboian vs Matias Franco Descotte

Challenger Clay Buenos Aires challenger · qualification - round of 16 17:45

Predicted probability

Valerio Aboian

Argentina

84.98%

Matias Franco Descotte

Argentina

15.02%

Average Odds

1.13 / 4.80

Market probability

80.94% / 19.06%

Why This Prediction?

Valerio Aboian is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1625 vs 1509) and a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1629 vs 1531).

Player Comparison

1624.8 Elo 1509.2

1629.3 Elo (surface) 1531.3

74 Wins (Challenger) 47

74 Wins (surface) 26

9 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.986 Dominance ratio 1.070

350 Rank -

24.3 Age 32.1

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Valerio Aboian

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-06-25.

Matias Franco Descotte

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

1 matches with market odds since 2026-09-21.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Valerio Aboian Matias Franco Descotte

1st Serve In %

—

64.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

60.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

38.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

23.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

39.2%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.14

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.33

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.8%

66.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.8%

63.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.6%

47.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

41.9%

35.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.7%

54.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.40

0.23

Double Faults per Service Game

0.12

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Valerio Aboian Matias Franco Descotte

Break Points Saved %

—

55.0%

Break Points Converted %

—

25.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

64.0%

63.2%

Break Points Converted %

43.0%

43.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Valerio Aboian 0 – 0 Matias Franco Descotte

Clay Buenos Aires challenger · 2026-09-21

qualification - round of 16

Valerio Aboian #350

Matias Franco Descotte #-

6-1 6-7 6-4

10 Aces 1

2 Double Faults 1

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

48 First Serve Won 36

23 Second Serve Won 21

8 Break Points Saved 13

11 Break Points Faced 19

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.1 Average Odds 4.8

Valerio Aboian vs Matias Franco Descotte — Prediction