ATP tennis predict — Valerio Aboian vs Luca Castagnola

Challenger Clay Genoa challenger · qualification - 1. round 14:30

Predicted probability

Valerio Aboian

Argentina

72.66%

Luca Castagnola

Italy

27.34%

Average Odds

1.28 / 3.47

Market probability

73.05% / 26.95%

Why This Prediction?

Valerio Aboian is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1534 vs 1390), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1549 vs 1349) and a stronger return game (40.9% vs 39.0% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1533.8 Elo 1390.4

1549.2 Elo (surface) 1349.3

69 Wins (Challenger) 16

69 Wins (surface) 10

8 Last 15 form 4

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.984 Dominance ratio 0.983

431 Rank 793

24.2 Age 24.2

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Valerio Aboian

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-06-25.

Luca Castagnola

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

5 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Valerio Aboian Luca Castagnola

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

1st Serve In %

56.8%

61.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.8%

66.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.6%

43.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

41.9%

32.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.7%

48.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.40

0.24

Double Faults per Service Game

0.12

0.52

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Valerio Aboian Luca Castagnola

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

Break Points Saved %

64.0%

56.1%

Break Points Converted %

43.0%

48.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Valerio Aboian 0 – 0 Luca Castagnola

Clay Genoa challenger · 2026-09-06

qualification - 1. round

Valerio Aboian #431

Luca Castagnola #793

6-3 4-6 6-2

6 Aces 2

1 Double Faults 7

81 Service Points 101

44 First Serve In 61

34 First Serve Won 38

18 Second Serve Won 16

4 Break Points Saved 8

7 Break Points Faced 13

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.5

Valerio Aboian vs Luca Castagnola — Prediction