ATP tennis predict — Valerio Aboian vs Lorenzo Rottoli

Challenger Clay Genoa challenger · qualification - round of 16 11:30

Predicted probability

Valerio Aboian

Argentina

62.55%

Lorenzo Rottoli

Italy

37.45%

Average Odds

1.51 / 2.44

Market probability

61.77% / 38.23%

Why This Prediction?

Valerio Aboian is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1544 vs 1426), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1558 vs 1423) and more wins on clay courts (70 vs 15).

Player Comparison

1544.3 Elo 1425.8

1557.5 Elo (surface) 1422.6

70 Wins (Challenger) 20

70 Wins (surface) 15

8 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.955 Dominance ratio 1.034

431 Rank 901

24.2 Age 24.6

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Valerio Aboian

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-06-25.

Lorenzo Rottoli

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

7 matches with market odds since 2026-06-07.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Valerio Aboian Lorenzo Rottoli

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

1st Serve In %

56.8%

61.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.8%

66.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.6%

47.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

41.9%

34.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.7%

48.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.40

0.35

Double Faults per Service Game

0.12

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Valerio Aboian Lorenzo Rottoli

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

Break Points Saved %

64.0%

63.5%

Break Points Converted %

43.0%

33.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Valerio Aboian 0 – 0 Lorenzo Rottoli

Clay Genoa challenger · 2026-09-07

qualification - round of 16

Valerio Aboian #431

Lorenzo Rottoli #901

3-6 6-3 6-2

8 Aces 2

1 Double Faults 1

95 Service Points 72

53 First Serve In 43

37 First Serve Won 26

21 Second Serve Won 18

6 Break Points Saved 1

8 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.5 Average Odds 2.4

Valerio Aboian vs Lorenzo Rottoli — Prediction