ATP tennis predict — Valerio Aboian vs Juan Cruz Martin Manzano

Challenger Clay Genoa challenger · 1. round 11:00

Predicted probability

Valerio Aboian

Argentina

57.54%

Juan Cruz Martin Manzano

Italy

42.46%

Average Odds

1.86 / 1.85

Market probability

49.87% / 50.13%

Why This Prediction?

Valerio Aboian is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1568 vs 1531), fewer double faults per game (0.12 vs 0.25) and a stronger serve (57.2% vs 55.6% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1555.8 Elo 1525.0

1568.4 Elo (surface) 1530.7

71 Wins (Challenger) 12

71 Wins (surface) 12

8 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.942 Dominance ratio 0.931

431 Rank 441

24.2 Age 21.7

left Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Valerio Aboian

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-06-25.

Juan Cruz Martin Manzano

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–7L · 30.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-06-07.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Valerio Aboian Juan Cruz Martin Manzano

1st Serve In %

—

56.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

58.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

52.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

25.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

43.3%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.07

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.40

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.8%

65.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.8%

57.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.6%

44.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

41.9%

43.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.7%

57.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.40

0.13

Double Faults per Service Game

0.12

0.24

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Valerio Aboian Juan Cruz Martin Manzano

Break Points Saved %

—

37.5%

Break Points Converted %

—

75.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

64.0%

40.0%

Break Points Converted %

43.0%

53.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Valerio Aboian 0 – 0 Juan Cruz Martin Manzano

Clay Genoa challenger · 2026-09-08

1. round

Valerio Aboian #431

Juan Cruz Martin Manzano #441

7-5 2-6 6-1

4 Aces 3

0 Double Faults 2

87 Service Points 82

52 First Serve In 51

31 First Serve Won 29

21 Second Serve Won 19

8 Break Points Saved 4

11 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.9 Average Odds 1.9

Valerio Aboian vs Juan Cruz Martin Manzano — Prediction