ATP tennis predict — Valerio Aboian vs Federico Iannaccone

Challenger Clay Plovdiv 3 challenger · QF 13:30

Predicted probability

Valerio Aboian

Argentina

41.53%

Federico Iannaccone

Italy

58.47%

Average Odds

1.92 / 1.81

Market probability

48.53% / 51.47%

Why This Prediction?

Federico Iannaccone is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1589 vs 1533), a stronger return game (50.4% vs 35.4% of return points won) and a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1560 vs 1553).

Player Comparison

1533.3 Elo 1588.8

1552.9 Elo (surface) 1559.8

68 Wins (Challenger) 40

68 Wins (surface) 33

8 Last 15 form 11

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.843 Dominance ratio 1.333

431 Rank 643

24.2 Age 27.4

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Valerio Aboian

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-06-25.

Federico Iannaccone

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

13 matches with market odds since 2026-08-23.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Valerio Aboian Federico Iannaccone

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

1st Serve In %

56.8%

71.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.8%

57.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.6%

49.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

41.9%

34.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.7%

60.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.40

0.18

Double Faults per Service Game

0.12

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Valerio Aboian Federico Iannaccone

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

Break Points Saved %

64.0%

53.7%

Break Points Converted %

43.0%

50.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Valerio Aboian 0 – 0 Federico Iannaccone

Clay Plovdiv 3 challenger · 2026-09-04

QF

Valerio Aboian #431

Federico Iannaccone #643

6-4 6-1

6 Aces 0

2 Double Faults 1

63 Service Points 40

40 First Serve In 22

26 First Serve Won 8

8 Second Serve Won 6

3 Break Points Saved 3

6 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.9 Average Odds 1.8

Valerio Aboian vs Federico Iannaccone — Prediction